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Residential Real Estate Market – Some Cities Are No Where Near a Recovery
While it doesn’t look like the US economy will enter a double-dip recession, many might conclude that the housing market has already done so. Normally, when real estate recovers, it helps the overall economy recover and is therefore one of the economic indicators showing that the recovery is progressing. Unfortunately, that did not happen this time and no new construction jobs were created, as has been the case in previous economic recoveries.
Some counties in California have been hit extremely hard, for example Riverside County, which had foreclosure rates very close to South Florida, the Las Vegas area, or the Phoenix AZ area. It grew extremely fast and many people bought new rail homes at the top of the market for far more than they could afford to spend and then with all the job losses there was no way for them to make their payments. During that time, the houses they bought have lost 40% in value, some almost 60% if you can believe it.
Not long ago I spoke to an acquaintance who is currently unemployed in Riverside County but has gone back to school to get a degree so he can personally recover financially from this event economic tragedy. He lives in a very nice suburban community in Marino Valley. When he explained this to me, I told him;
“I know the Moreno Valley, it’s good there, but with the recession, it’s certainly hurt real estate prices there, what a disappointment, one of the worst affected areas in the United States in done, mainly because it grew so fast, but all these middle-class areas -the houses they built are very nice, how is the neighborhood now, I’m worried about gangs and crime that’s going on install now?”
Indeed, I asked him if it was very bad, with gangs, violence and crime. He said there had been a crime, but the next day I read in the paper that a teenage girl, aged just 17, had been shot outside a friend’s house where she was attending a party in this city. She was able to drive her car, but was bleeding profusely and started screaming for help in the middle of someone else’s neighborhood. They called the paramedics, took her to the hospital, but she died.
It has often been said that the crime rate increases by 2.5% for every 1% increase in foreclosures. In this latest real estate crash, those numbers didn’t seem to match past FBI data. However, perhaps all of this data is now catching up with this reality. And it still looks like the residential real estate market in these suburban areas like Marino Valley won’t be close to recovery for at least three years, but probably five more. It would be over eight years in total, just to get back to where things were.
Much of California is going through a ten-year residential real estate cycle for valuations, and it looks like that cycle could be a bit longer either due to government economic policy or simply the reality of the size of the bubble that burst at the end of 2008. Indeed I hope you will consider all this and think about it.
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